Long Term Prospects for the Churches of God

Objective and Factual Church of God Commentary


The Gun Lap

Most people in the Churches of God probably still think that the end of the age is just a few years away. However, Herbert Armstrong said that in about 1930, which is about 80 years ago. If he was that far off then, the COGs today could be just as wrong. The end could still be a long long way off. Let’s take a look at what the world and the COGs will probably look like in another 10, 20 or 80 years.

Though I do not claim to be a prophet inspired by God, I will attempt to look into the future a few years and decades and see where the trends are leading. Yes, things can change, but current trends suggest that the COGs are poised to fade into the sunset.

  • These churches seem to be getting almost no new members from the world, a trend that does not bode well for their long-term survial.
  • The British race is rapidly losing the U.K. and U.S.A. to the massive legal (and in the U.S.A. illegal) immigration of minorities. It will not make sense to talk about the U.K. and the U.S.A. as the birthright nations.
  • According to projections, the white race, about 30% of the world population about 80 years ago, in another 80 years, will decline to about 1-2% of the world’s population due to a low birth rate and interracial marriage brought on by massive immigration. It will no longer be meaningful to talk about British Israelism because there will be no white nations left. In a few decades it will no longer be meaningful to talk about the ten tribes because none of them will exist as separate nations except perhaps the Jews in Palestine who are in the process of ethnically cleansing Palestine of Arabs.
  • There will be few white people left around to care, so the message of British Israelism will fall on the deaf ears of “minorities” (who will then be the vast majority).
  • Traditional Christianity is in decline. Almost all COG members are former traditional Christians, so the pool of potential converts is declining.
  • The Roman Catholic Church (RCC) is declining in influence, rather than growing in power as predicted by the COGs. This is in part due to sex scandals. The Catholic Church does not look as powerful and fearsome as it used to. Fewer people will be frightened into attending a COG, and ominous warnings about the RCC will not resonate with people. The RCC is declining in power in Germany in particular, which is contrary to COG predictions of a powerful end-time Catholic-German power block.
  • Bible fundamentalists will likely lose the battle over the legitimacy of the Bible. This further reduces the pool of potential COG members, as well as the appeal of all churches which take the bible literally.
  • The COGs seem to be slowly moving away from Armstrong’s views (liberalizing doctrines on make-up, the end-time Elijah, etc), so even if they survive, they won’t be the same as they were before.
  • More and more people believe in conspiracy theories that the COGs do not support. The COGs will have a hard time reaching these people.
  • The moral and intellectual quality of COG leadership and membership may decline as long as intelligent and sincere ministers and members wise up to errors and church corruption and leave. In other words, when people leave, it may be the best and brightest people who are leaving.
  • The Cold War is over, so what will frighten people into a COG? Terrorism is not as big of a threat, not even close. Furthermore, many people see that the “war on terror” is mostly hype to create an excuse to control the middle east and strip Americans of their rights. Many people see through it.
  • The COGs seem to be declining in numbers and in media power.
  • The COGs are based in the U.S.A., and most of their members are probably lower middle class. As the U.S. middle class seems to stagnating or falling behind financially, with the rich getting richer, this does not bode well for their income base.
  • DNA studies seem to refute BI, and as time goes on, this topic will be more thoroughly researched and the information will be more widely disseminated.
  • The web already contains enough information to refute BI and other COG beliefs, and this trend will likely continue.
  • It’s becoming harder to keep to Christian values as society declines morally. This will make it harder to last in a COG. Also, fewer people seem concerned about declining morality, so fewer people will be attracted to a COG in the first place.
  • Possibly growing anti-Jewish or pro-Palestinian sentiment. The COGs identify closely with the Jews and strongly support the state of Israel, yet Israel is increasingly seen as hostile, war-mongering, and evil. Furthermore, more people seem to be becoming aware of Jewish control over the U.S.A. As reported on Fox news, Israel knew about 911 before it happened but did not warn US intelligence. The holocaust, which Jews constantly milk to get sympathy and support, is slowly fading in significance as it fades farther into the past.
  • Jews seems to be rapidly growing in power, not being cursed for their sins as COG prophecy says they should be. The Jews control Hollywood, the news media, the U.S. Federal Reserve, the U.S. congress, senate, the US “President” (who really should be called the Emperor since the U.S. is a fake democracy with puppet states around the world), and major banks. The Jews already control much of the world economically, and more and more people seem to be waking up to this reality.
  • More COG propheices will fail. For example, Gerald Flurry predicts Iran will attack Europe, but that would be very foolish since Iran has very little power despite PCG fear-mongering to the contrary. Iran is not stupid and suicidal so they are not going to do that. It’s more likely Israel and perhaps the USA will attack Iran and topple the government, or at least destroy much of their military until they are no longer a “threat”.
  • The Old Guard of COG ministers is dying off.
  • The further we get from the year 2000, the more improbable the 6000 year plan of God will seem, eroding a major and long held teaching that implied the end was near.
  • Each time nothing major happens on a 19-year time cycle, the more improbable those time cycles will appear to be, wiping out another major Armstrong doctrine that underpinned the significance of the church he founded.
  • Economic collapse (or perhaps just long-term stagnation) in the U.S. might come, but will not lead to the Great Tribulation. The US dollar is eroding and might even evaporate, but things won’t pan out as predicted by the churches. After a severe downturn the U.S.A. might recover, but likely never return to its former glory. When the end does not come as expected, disappointment will result.
  • China will replace the U.S.A. as the world’s economic engine and, eventually, as the major military power. The big threat may be China, not Germany or Europe.
  • The “big work” done by HWA is so long ago now, that it does not constitute a warning for the last generation. The people who he warned are dying off. If he warned the wrong generation, could HWA still have been the end-time Elijah or the end-time John the Baptist as he claimed? Did the church he found even understand what their purpose was, i.e. why they were called to do a work at that time in history? As time goes on more people are likely to conclude that the answer is no.
  • Another Tkach-style revolt from conservative COG doctrines could take place in some major COG. I.e. more liberal insiders could be waiting in the wings to take over when some leader dies. This would not work on old time members, but they are dying off. It might work on a newer generation who were the children of church members who stayed loyal during the Tkach revolt. The time for this might be ripe in another 20 years or so. As HWA warned, the history of liberalism (1970s) could repeat itself—yet again.
  • The farce of “Climate Change” will likely be exposed for what it is in 20 to 30 years when dire climate predictions don’t pan out. More people may wake up and see that God is not punishing us with worsening weather because the weather won’t be getting worse. (On the other hand, the media have been getting away with that lie for a long time, and maybe still will.)
  • When the oil and gas runs out (the supply seems safe for the next 20 years, but it is not clear what will happen after that), human populations might well collapse to a fraction of the current size. In that scenario, the COG population will likely also collapse. Despite the calamity, the world will go on, contrary to COG predictions. And when church members are starving to death, faith in a God who is supposed to provide for them will be cast aside.
  • In a few decades there will be more minorities in Germany than Germans. It will not make sense to see Germany as Assyria. Racially, they will be a mixed bag just like the rest of Europe, which will no longer be white. The white race is rapidly collapsing.

In conclusion, it appears that the Churches of God, as we know them today, will decline in size until they become very small and insignificant.

Permission for the Painful Truth to republish has been granted.

2 Replies to “Long Term Prospects for the Churches of God”

  1. When I first got interested in the RCG (Radio, not Restored) all the hype was new to me. And there was a definite timelime to 1972. HWA and GTA had a (seemingly) unique message.

    The culture has since changed, information is more available, and COGs are still pushing things that were popular years ago. The end is always “3 to 5 fears from now”, dangling like a carrot on a stick.

    And some COGs can’t disguise that they are just fishing for members from other COGs – it’s easier to get someone who is already hooked…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.