July 4th. State of America.

Britain’s American colonies broke with the mother country in 1776 and were recognized as the new nation of the United States of America following the Treaty of Paris in 1783. During the 19th and 20th centuries, 37 new states were added to the original 13 as the nation expanded across the North American continent and acquired a number of overseas possessions. The two most traumatic experiences in the nation’s history were the Civil War (1861-65), in which a northern Union of states defeated a secessionist Confederacy of 11 southern slave states, and the Great Depression of the 1930s, an economic downturn during which about a quarter of the labor force lost its jobs. Buoyed by victories in World Wars I and II and the end of the Cold War in 1991, the US remains the world’s most powerful nation state. Since the end of World War II, the economy has achieved relatively steady growth, low unemployment and inflation, and rapid advances in technology. Until now.

What’s is store for America and the World?

The world of 2030 will be radically

transformed from our world today.

By 2030, no country—whether the

US, China, or any other large country—will

be a hegemonic power. The empowerment

of individuals and diffusion of power among

states and from states to informal networks will

have a dramatic impact, largely reversing the

historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring

Asia’s weight in the global economy, and

ushering in a new era of “democratization”

at the international and domestic level.

How the United States’ international role evolves

during the next 15-20 years—a big uncertainty—and

whether the US will be able to work with new partners

to reinvent the international system will be among

the most important variables in the future shape of

the global order. Although the United States’ (and the

West’s) relative decline vis-a-vis the rising states is

inevitable, its future role in the international system

is much harder to project: the degree to which the US

continues to dominate the international system could

vary widely.

The US most likely will remain “first among equals”

among the other great powers in 2030 because of

its preeminence across a range of power dimensions

and legacies of its leadership role. More important

than just its economic weight, the United States’

dominant role in international politics has derived

from its preponderance across the board in both hard

and soft power. Nevertheless, with the rapid rise of

other countries, the “unipolar moment” is over and

Pax Americana—the era of American ascendancy

in international politics that began in 1945—is fast

winding down.

The US impact is much more clear-cut in the negative
case in which the US fails to rebound and is in sharp
economic decline. In that scenario, a large and
dangerous global power vacuum would be created and
in a relatively short space of time. With a weak US, the
potential would increase for the European economy to
unravel. The European Union might remain, but as an
empty shell around a fragmented continent.

Marx Update for the 21st Century:

I’m not sure that the US is yet ripe for revolution. It’s done too well from shale gas. The working class there got lulled by the increased manufacturing possibilities as businesses moved back from Asia when US domestic energy prices dropped. But it could be just a matter of time. Entitlement reform in the 2010s didn’t happen because US growth picked up. US debt has continued to climb: it is only a matter of time before entitlements will be back
on the political agenda. The onset of a global downturn with all the turmoil in Europe and elsewhere is beginning to stir up class tensions. The US thinks it is immune, but we’ll see. Unfortunately, opposition activists in America no longer read Marx.

We’ve seen growing class divisions elsewhere, pointing to a potential global revolution.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency will enact new rules that will forced failed bank losses on investors, if needed, via a mechanism known as a “bail-in,” according to The Nikkei. Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU), Mizuho Financial (MFG) and Sumitomo Mitsui (SMFG) are among those proposing amendments to allow them to issue the types of preferred shares or subordinated bonds that would be used in such cases, the report noted.

So here on July 4th, a holiday celebrating your freedoms and rights, perhaps you should consider what you status as a free citizen really is. Or do you really care? The master slave relationship (Owner/property relationships) is alive and well.